Month: August 2023

This coming week could see our last days this year with highs on the 90s over the western Great Lakes. Little rainfall is expected until the middle of next week. Labor Day Weekend over all of Michigan and for that matter the Great Lakes.

Warmer temperatures are expected from Labor Day into the middle of the week. A cold front coming through the area in late Wednesday/Thursday time frame may bring showers and slightly cooler weather .

Here is an updated report on the storms on August 24, 2023. As it turned out there were 1 EF-1 tornado in Southwest Michigan, and EF-2 tornado in South Central Michigan and 6 tornadoes, 1 EF-0 and 5 EF-1’s in the Detriot area. I updated some of my slides for the event.

I updated my story about the severe storms since the NWS has now reported 8 tornadoes in Michigan on the 24th of August. The strongest was an EF-2 near Webbrvillle

Severe Storms, on Thursday night (8-24-23) cause power outages, flooding and an EF1 tornado over Lower Michigan. This shows some preliminary reports from the storm last night.

It was a HOT JULY over most of the CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES but that was not the case for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

As promised I have posted the national images of July 2023. The short story is it was the 7th warmest and 45th wettest for the CONUS. In Michigan it was the 58th warmest and 5th wettest on record.

Heavy Rain was forecast for yesterday afternoon into mid morning today. The slides below show the what actually happened.

We forecast heavy rain between I-94 and I-96 and that is exactly what did happen. The heaviest rainfall report showed 4.50 inches in Middleville, most of that area had between 1″ and 3″ of rain from the event.

Heavy Rainfall is expected over most of Lower Michigan from Monday Afternoon into Tuesday Morning

Heavy Rain is expected over most of the southern half of Lower Michigan between 2 pm Monday and 8 am Tuesday morning.

An unusually strong storm system for this time of year is expected to track east across Lower Michigan from Monday into Tuesday morning. This will be an occluded system, with the track of the surface low near I-94. It is typical for the heaviest precipitation to be within 100 miles of track of the surface low, but on the north it’s track. This system as a closed upper low with it and a coupled jet with it. The precipitable water reaches above 1.5 inches Monday afternoon over the southern 1/3 of Lower Michigan as this system tracks through the area. There is also good model continuity with this system so it gives me confidence that the heavy rainfall will happen. Just exactly were is questionable but I would have to believe between I-94 and Route 10, between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning a large part of that area should see more than an inch of rainfall.

Cool and Wet over Lower Michigan into mid August. Warmer temperatures are expected late in the month.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected to prevail over a large part of the northern CONUS into mid August.

We continue to see an overall eastern North American trough and western upper level ridge prevailing through the 3rd week of August. It does however look like a case of discontinuous retrogression by the later part of August as the models show a large upper ridge developing late in the month over most of the Continental United States (CONUS).