(Severe reports were mostly large hail near Lansing)
Summary for the Squall Line for April 17, 2024
Author: The Marinocast
I have just retired from forecasting for the National Weather Service (Dec 31 2022) after working there for 38 years. Prior to that I forecast for the United States Air Force from 1976 to 1984. I am very much into forecasting weather and climate and especially love snow storms.
Storm Summary for April 11-12th, 2024 heavy rain and gusty wind event.
One to two inches of rain fell over a good part of Lower Michigan during this time. A rapidly deepening surface low tracked north across Lake Huron Friday, April 12, 2024 deepening below 980MB by late in the morning. This resulted in winds gusting to 40 to 60 mph across most of the area.
Updated Rainfall Forecast for Lower Michigan into Friday Morning
Heavy Rain over Lower Michigan Thursday then Very Windy, with Showers Friday.
South of Michigan there is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes over Ohio, western Pennsylvanian, West Virginia, and Kentucky.
Here is my final forecast update for the Eclipse on Monday afternoon.
I waited for the evening HREF to come in so I could use the very latest model data for this forecast. Based on the HREF , NAM 12k m, NAM 3Km and the HRRR, it seems likely there will be high clouds over the Eclipse track from Indiana into Ohio. Being high clouds, more than likely you’d see some of the Eclipse. The best viewing still seems to be in over New Hampshire and Maine.
Here Is My Updated Cloudiness Forecast For The Eclipse Monday
Today I used the NAM 3km forecast since that now goes out, hour by hour to 8 pm on Monday. I hope tomorrow evening to update with the HREF, which I still believe is most reliable for cloud cover forecasting.
As for the best location to see the Eclipse,for those in this area, I would say anywhere along the track form Evansville Indiana to near Cleveland. Most of the models continue to favor this area .
Where is the most likely location for you to go, based on the model cloud forecast so you can view the Total Solar Eclipse Monday?
I will update this forecast once the high resolution models get within 48 hours of the time of the Eclipse (2-3 pm Monday).
Note the times of Totality at various locations came from Astronomy as did slide #2.
Winter 2023-2024 Summary
This was both nationally and locally one of the warmest winters on record, with records going back to 1895. Nationally and locally snowfall was below to well below normal. Precipitation was mostly near normal.
Climate Summary For February
For Southwest Michigan, this was the warmest February on record. Both the total precipitation and snowfall were well below normal. Nationally this was the 3rd warmest and 40th driest on record.
Storm Summary for March 22, 2024
There was a narrow band of 5″ to 8″ of snow From Near Holland Michigan, across the Grand Rapids area, to just north of Flint. Most of the snow fell in about 12 hours.
themarinocast 