South of Michigan there is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes over Ohio, western Pennsylvanian, West Virginia, and Kentucky.
Heavy Rain over Lower Michigan Thursday then Very Windy, with Showers Friday.
Category: Heavy Rain / Flooding
Storm Summary for the 27th into the 28th of February, 2024
Record high temperatures ( many cases all time record highs for February) were quickly brought to an end by a strong late February cold front. There were 21 reported tornadoes, mostly EF-0 and EF-1 but there was an EF-2 near Grand Blanc in Geneses County just ahead of the cold front. Temperatures fell around 50 degrees between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon over Lower Michigan. There was 6 to 10 inches of snow in upper Michigan and locally 1 to 2 inches of rain in parts of southern Lower Michigan. Winds gusted to 69 mph over western Lake Erie.
Looks like a rainy night tonight and during the day tomorrow over the eastern CONUS. There is an enhanced risk of severe storms over Louisiana this evening.
This blog is really more about showing those who do not know about the SPC HREF model. I have some of the key charts from today’s HREF that show where the severe storms are expected, the strongest winds, and heaviest rainfall.
Here is a link to the SPC HREF model.
Expect the wet and cool weather over Northern Midwest into New England, including the Great Lakes, to persist into early next week. An impressively large blocking upper-level high, over central Canada will keep the storm track over the northern CONUS into early next week. It will also allow a subtropical system to track along the Gulf Coast over the next few days.
Heavy Rain was forecast for yesterday afternoon into mid morning today. The slides below show the what actually happened.
We forecast heavy rain between I-94 and I-96 and that is exactly what did happen. The heaviest rainfall report showed 4.50 inches in Middleville, most of that area had between 1″ and 3″ of rain from the event.
Heavy Rainfall is expected over most of Lower Michigan from Monday Afternoon into Tuesday Morning
Heavy Rain is expected over most of the southern half of Lower Michigan between 2 pm Monday and 8 am Tuesday morning.
An unusually strong storm system for this time of year is expected to track east across Lower Michigan from Monday into Tuesday morning. This will be an occluded system, with the track of the surface low near I-94. It is typical for the heaviest precipitation to be within 100 miles of track of the surface low, but on the north it’s track. This system as a closed upper low with it and a coupled jet with it. The precipitable water reaches above 1.5 inches Monday afternoon over the southern 1/3 of Lower Michigan as this system tracks through the area. There is also good model continuity with this system so it gives me confidence that the heavy rainfall will happen. Just exactly were is questionable but I would have to believe between I-94 and Route 10, between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning a large part of that area should see more than an inch of rainfall.
I had my all time record one hour Rainfall rate Saturday Morning, at my Grandville Weather Station.
Exceptional rainfall occurred during the early morning hours at Grandville between 1 am and 2 am. This storm broke my all time 5 minute rainfall rate record and 1 hour rainfall rate record.
With Grandville Weather Data at my house having records back to the fall of 1995, the 2.95″ of rain that was recorded in both my 4″ rain gauge and my Davis Weather Station (nice that they agreed) , is my all time record rainfall in one hour. The previous record was 2.30″ during a thunderstorm during the evening of July 17 2oo6 between 9:45 pm and 10:45 pm. The 0.50″ in 5 minutes is also a new record for 5 minute rainfall, exceeding the 0.41″ on June 18th 2021.
The pictures above are from our home, looking north out of what is my son John’s bedroom window. The time posted on the pictures are EST, so you have have to add one hour to get the correct time for these images.
Heavy Rain and Risk for Severe Storms Today
The Storm Prediction Center has put most of the southern 1/3 of Lower Michigan an enhanced risk for severe storms today (mostly late morning into mid afternoon). Locally heavy rainfall is expected too.
Most of the rainfall today will be from late morning into mid afternoon.
My experience in forecasting over the past 46 years tell me that for Southwest Michigan convection during the spring and summer months, warm fronts, stationary fronts and surface waves bring this area the most rainfall. Cold fronts bring us the least (typically). This event is warm front with a surface wave that develops into a surface low. This tells me most area should see meaningful rainfall today.
We are expecting heavy rain late this afternoon into early tonight across the southern half of Lower Michigan.
Heavy rain with a few thunderstorms is expected over the southern 1/3 of Lower Michigan from late afternoon until early Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2″ to 4″ is expected over a large area, so that may cause some urban and small stream flooding.
The heaviest rainfall is expected between 5 pm and 9 pm this evening. Rainfall of 2 inches to 4 inches is expected with local amounts over 5 inches possible. As a result, The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the southern 1/3 of Lower Michigan until 2 am Thursday. This amount of rain will have an impact on reducing the on-going drought if in fact we actually do that that much rain over a large area.
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