Category: Uncategorized

Heavy Rainfall over Lower Michigan From the July 14th through July 16th, 2024

Thunderstorms with heavy rain two nights in a row brought 2″ to 3″ of rain over a good share of southern Half of Lower Michigan.

Kalamazoo’s CoCoRaHS report of 3.52″ was the greatest total from the reports I have seen.

A Look at the January 9-10th Storm and some impacts

This storm brought heavy snow to the Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes, then there were damaging winds over the eastern Seaboard, as well as flooding. Severe storms and over a dozen tornadoes occurred over the Southeast sections.

Two Major Snowstorm, Then Colder

In Conclusion, the storms we will see over the central and eastern Untied States between now and Wednesday are the forerunners of a major change in the weather pattern over the CONUS. That past month or so was mostly warmer than normal over nearly all of the CONUS, with just the southeast sections near to below normal. From the second week through the third week in January we will see much colder weather from the west coast to the east coast and the wet pattern will expand into the central United States. Snow will likely be on the ground over most locations north of Indianapolis by the end of next week.

This is an updated version of my Winter Forecast

My actual forecast remains unchanged. I mostly updated the ENSO slides and added monthly model forecasts from the ECMWF and the CFSv2. 

CPC’s forecast for this winter has not changed significantly in the past few months.

The QBO should allow for more arctic air to reach the CONUS once we get into January and February.

I am thinking snowfall will generally be below normal over Michigan, however sections of the East Coast, from North Carolina to Maine could have well above normal snowfall since El Nino’s favor Nor-Easters (Coastal Storms). When we get into a cooler pattern in January, I’d expect to see some heavy snow events along the east coast. See slide 48 for details.

Here is my summary of the 3 day snowstorm that impacted the entire Great Lakes between Sunday, November 26th and Tuesday November 28th.

There was a southern stream shortwave that brought 1 to 3 inches of snow to the southern Great Lakes on Sunday. However most of the snow fell from lake effect as the coldest air of the season crossed the relatively warm water of the Great Lakes (mostly in the 40s) Monday into Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall was were the west to northwest wind was forced up-slope over northern Lower Michigan but even more so over the Tug Hill Plateau of western New York were over a 1 1/2 feet of snow fell.