The national trend of top 20 warmest months on record continued for both March and April. March was overall wet compared to average while March was closer to normal. Snowfall was above normal over the western Mountains but below normal (mostly ) elsewhere.
This is a short version compared to my previous seasonal forecasts but I believe the shorter version will be easier to read. I may add details as the season progresses.
The current cool weather pattern has recently developed over the central and norther Plains. That cold air is expected to spread east over the next week. Frost and freezing temperatures are possible in northern and central sections over the next 7 days. Than, a warmer and wetter weather pattern is expected over most of the eastern and central CONUS.
One to two inches of rain fell over a good part of Lower Michigan during this time. A rapidly deepening surface low tracked north across Lake Huron Friday, April 12, 2024 deepening below 980MB by late in the morning. This resulted in winds gusting to 40 to 60 mph across most of the area.
This was both nationally and locally one of the warmest winters on record, with records going back to 1895. Nationally and locally snowfall was below to well below normal. Precipitation was mostly near normal.
For Southwest Michigan, this was the warmest February on record. Both the total precipitation and snowfall were well below normal. Nationally this was the 3rd warmest and 40th driest on record.
There was a narrow band of 5″ to 8″ of snow From Near Holland Michigan, across the Grand Rapids area, to just north of Flint. Most of the snow fell in about 12 hours.
This is an update to what I did yesterday but with a lot more detail. I have added CONUS scale winter temperature anomalies for each of the past 10 years so you can see for yourself, in your area how the cold winter frequency has changed (there is a summary CONUS scale summary table for this now too). I have added correlation slides from CPC and Physical Science Laboratories to show there really the correlation I am suggesting is true.
At least over Southwest Michigan and likely most of the northern CONUS, we have lacked cold winter (relative to 1991-2020 normal) since the winter of 2014/2015, which was the last cold winter. I would suggest warming oceans are at least part of the story.
Largely this means warmer and wetter over the CONUS but cold and snowy over southern Canada.
themarinocast 