Tag: climate

Here is my updated version of the summer of 2023 climate. I have added some details on Southwest Michigan including the severe weather events this summer. I have also added slides on the large scale pattern, that is our transition from La Nina this past winter to El Nino this summer. This lead to persistent blocking over North America, which is why there were persistent heat over the south and wet weather over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS.

This was a summer that featured persistent weather patterns over most of North America and lead to one of the most active Canadian wildfire seasons on record. It also lead the the 15th warmest summer on record (back to 1895) over the CONUS.

GRR August 24th Event Link

DTX August 24th Event Link

DTX August 24th Event Flooding Link

DTX EVENT SUMMARYhttps://www.weather.gov/dtx/severeweather07202023
DTX EVENT SUMMARY

How did the Summer of 2023 turn out weather wise across the CONUS (continental United States)? How did the summer forecast I posted in March turn out (very good for the temperature, not so great for the precipitation)

While it was the 15th warmest summer on record nationally, not all of the CONUS had a warm summer. You may want to find out how your area did relative to normal for this summer.

It appears cool weather will prevail over the eastern Continental United States (CONUS) for the next 3 weeks. It should be drier than normal over the Great Lakes but wetter than normal over the East Coast and Western Plains.

Expect the next 3 weeks to be cooler than normal over most of the eastern United States. It will be dry over the Great Lakes but very wet over the eastern seaboard.

This coming week could see our last days this year with highs on the 90s over the western Great Lakes. Little rainfall is expected until the middle of next week. Labor Day Weekend over all of Michigan and for that matter the Great Lakes.

Warmer temperatures are expected from Labor Day into the middle of the week. A cold front coming through the area in late Wednesday/Thursday time frame may bring showers and slightly cooler weather .

It was a HOT JULY over most of the CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES but that was not the case for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

As promised I have posted the national images of July 2023. The short story is it was the 7th warmest and 45th wettest for the CONUS. In Michigan it was the 58th warmest and 5th wettest on record.

Heavy Rain was forecast for yesterday afternoon into mid morning today. The slides below show the what actually happened.

We forecast heavy rain between I-94 and I-96 and that is exactly what did happen. The heaviest rainfall report showed 4.50 inches in Middleville, most of that area had between 1″ and 3″ of rain from the event.

Cool and Wet over Lower Michigan into mid August. Warmer temperatures are expected late in the month.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected to prevail over a large part of the northern CONUS into mid August.

We continue to see an overall eastern North American trough and western upper level ridge prevailing through the 3rd week of August. It does however look like a case of discontinuous retrogression by the later part of August as the models show a large upper ridge developing late in the month over most of the Continental United States (CONUS).

The second and third week of July have been cooler than normal, however, during the fourth week of July a heat wave (3 days or more in a row with highs of 90 or more) is expected for Southwest Lower Michigan. Don’t get to use to that through, cooler temperatures return by the 1st of August.

It’s been cool for the 2nd and 3rd week of July, however a dramatic change to hot weather is expected from Wednesday through Saturday.