Tag: excessive rainfall

Heavy Rain over Lower Michigan Thursday then Very Windy, with Showers Friday.

South of Michigan there is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes over Ohio, western Pennsylvanian, West Virginia, and Kentucky.

January and Seasonal Snowfall Totals for Both Michigan and then the CONUS

Over Michigan, November and December featured well below normal snowfall. The first 2 1/2 weeks of January seem to be making up some of that deficit. Over the rest of the CONUS, seasonal snowfall mostly remains below normal.

A Look at the January 9-10th Storm and some impacts

This storm brought heavy snow to the Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes, then there were damaging winds over the eastern Seaboard, as well as flooding. Severe storms and over a dozen tornadoes occurred over the Southeast sections.

I have had quiet a few question on if we will have White Christmas this year. This post will try to answer that.

The short story is if you live in the central or eastern CONUS it is very unlikely you’ll have snow on the ground Christmas morning.

I have updated this to show the percent snow cover and ENSO state for each of the 10 years. At the end I have 2 tables that show the years with the ENSO index numbers and the snow cover for that Christmas. The bottom table sorts the percent snow cover from highest to lowest to see if there is a correlation between the ENSO state and the percent snow cover on Christmas day.

Area Covered By Snow:53%
In 2022, ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) was -1.0 while the MEI index was -1.0 making this a moderate La Niña.
Area Covered By Snow:26.6%
2021 was a moderate La Niña, the ONI index was -1.2 while the MEI index was -1.0.
Area Covered By Snow:26.5%
2020 was ENSO neutral with the ONI index at +0.5 while the MEI index was 0.3.
Area Covered By Snow:28.1%

2019 was ENSO neutral with the ONI index at +0.7 while the MEI index was 0.1.
Area Covered By Snow:24.6%
2018 was a weak La Niña, the ONI index was -0.9 while the MEI index was -0.8.
Area Covered By Snow:49.0%
2017 was ENSO neutral with the ONI index at -0.3 while the MEI index was -0.4.
Area Covered By Snow:44.1%
Area Covered By Snow:
24.6%
2016 was a strong El Niño, the ONI index was +2.5 while the MEI index was +1.9. The ONI at 2.5 was an all time record for the ONI index.
Area Covered By Snow:37.2%
2015 was ENSO neutral with the ONI index at 0.5 while the MEI index was 0.2. This was the start of the strong El Niño that lasted from the spring of 2016 into the spring of 2017.
Area Covered By Snow:35.5%
2014 was ENSO neutral with the ONI index at -0.4 while the MEI index was -0.5.
Area Covered By Snow:41.7%
2013 was ENSO neutral with the ONI index at -0.4 while the MEI index was 0.0.

Below is a table showing the percent snow cover on Christmas

Below is a table showing the percent snow cover on Christmas Day in chronological order.

Below is a table showing ENSO numbers and the percent snow cover on Christmas day for that year sorted from the highest percent snow cover to the lowest. There does not seem to be a significant correlation to the ENSO state and the percent snow cover on Christmas Day.

Looks like a rainy night tonight and during the day tomorrow over the eastern CONUS. There is an enhanced risk of severe storms over Louisiana this evening.

This blog is really more about showing those who do not know about the SPC HREF model. I have some of the key charts from today’s HREF that show where the severe storms are expected, the strongest winds, and heaviest rainfall.

Here is a link to the SPC HREF model.

Enjoy the warm weather this week because it will get much colder next week and parts of Michigan may even see their first snowfalls by Tuesday. Happy Halloween!

This shows our transition point from warmer to cooler weather.

Expect the wet and cool weather over Northern Midwest into New England, including the Great Lakes, to persist into early next week. An impressively large blocking upper-level high, over central Canada will keep the storm track over the northern CONUS into early next week. It will also allow a subtropical system to track along the Gulf Coast over the next few days.