Tag: Snowfall

It looks like our warmer than normal temperatures will persist over the western CONUS but over the eastern half of the CONUS, largely based on the MJO, with some ensemble model support colder and snowier weather will follow the last 2 weeks of December. Over the Southeast it will just be cool and wet.

Snow is on the way for the Western Great Lakes Sunday and lake effect snow is expected over Michigan and down stream of Lake Erie Monday into Tuesday. It will be much colder the first half of next week too.

Here is my winter forecast for 2023-2024 for both the CONUS and for Southwest Michigan.

The short story is I am expecting a not so typical moderate to strong El Nino Winter this year. This is due to record warm sea surface temperatures in combination with an easterly wind over the tropical oceans, near 200 mb. This these two features acting together create an unusual amount of blocking in our Northern Hemisphere jet stream. This will mean periods of extremely cold weather and periods of unusually warm weather for a good part of the central and eastern United States lower 48 states. Even so, for Southwest Michigan and actually for all of Michigan I expect snowfall to be below normal but we will get a decent amount of snow nonetheless.

Here is a more detailed both CONUS and for Michigan, October Climate Summary.

By waiting until the 8th, I can get the maps from NCEI (National Center for Environmental Information). I have added graphs from xmACIS for the daily temperature and precipitation plus I have the monthly climate summary from Grand Rapids and Gaylord.

Enjoy the warm weather this week because it will get much colder next week and parts of Michigan may even see their first snowfalls by Tuesday. Happy Halloween!

This shows our transition point from warmer to cooler weather.

A Very Dry May is Expected to be Followed by a Not all the Wet June over Southern Lower Michigan (at least through mid June)

May in Southwest Michigan was one of the top 10 driest on Record, the fist half of June is not expected to be all that much wetter.