The short story is I am expecting a not so typical moderate to strong El Nino Winter this year. This is due to record warm sea surface temperatures in combination with an easterly wind over the tropical oceans, near 200 mb. This these two features acting together create an unusual amount of blocking in our Northern Hemisphere jet stream. This will mean periods of extremely cold weather and periods of unusually warm weather for a good part of the central and eastern United States lower 48 states. Even so, for Southwest Michigan and actually for all of Michigan I expect snowfall to be below normal but we will get a decent amount of snow nonetheless.
themarinocast 
Bill…..I completely agree with you that this will not be a typical strong El Niño Winter. It is amazing that even though there is now a strong El Niño, the MEI index indicates the atmosphere is not responding. There is an easterly QBO and the models are forecasting a strong stratospheric warming event to take place in December, which would likely give us very cold air to start the New Year.
You are one of the few forecasters I have seen notice these things. Good discussion Bill. This will indeed be an interesting winter to watch.
Craig
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