Here is my winter forecast for 2023-2024 for both the CONUS and for Southwest Michigan.

The short story is I am expecting a not so typical moderate to strong El Nino Winter this year. This is due to record warm sea surface temperatures in combination with an easterly wind over the tropical oceans, near 200 mb. This these two features acting together create an unusual amount of blocking in our Northern Hemisphere jet stream. This will mean periods of extremely cold weather and periods of unusually warm weather for a good part of the central and eastern United States lower 48 states. Even so, for Southwest Michigan and actually for all of Michigan I expect snowfall to be below normal but we will get a decent amount of snow nonetheless.

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Author: The Marinocast

I have just retired from forecasting for the National Weather Service (Dec 31 2022) after working there for 38 years. Prior to that I forecast for the United States Air Force from 1976 to 1984. I am very much into forecasting weather and climate and especially love snow storms.

One thought on “Here is my winter forecast for 2023-2024 for both the CONUS and for Southwest Michigan.”

  1. Bill…..I completely agree with you that this will not be a typical strong El Niño Winter. It is amazing that even though there is now a strong El Niño, the MEI index indicates the atmosphere is not responding. There is an easterly QBO and the models are forecasting a strong stratospheric warming event to take place in December, which would likely give us very cold air to start the New Year.

    You are one of the few forecasters I have seen notice these things. Good discussion Bill. This will indeed be an interesting winter to watch.

    Craig

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